The group, led by Dr. Anton Schreuder from Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen, investigated the usefulness of examining emphysema progression on the CT scans of patients suspected of having lung cancer in determining their risk of death.
In recent years, there has been a growing effort to personalize risk stratification for potential lung cancer patients. Schreuder and colleagues believed that emphysema progression could contribute to the prediction of mortality risk. To that end, they developed a risk prediction model that incorporated emphysema progression as a variable in estimating all-cause and lung cancer mortality. Then they entered data from the CT exams of all 1,810 deceased participants in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) into this model.
Their analysis revealed that an increase in emphysema scores on CT from baseline screening was associated with an elevated risk of all-cause and lung cancer mortality.
"When more than one CT scan of the same patient is available, emphysema score progression rate can easily be calculated from each scan's emphysema score," Schreuder told AuntMinnie.com. "We suggest adding this new variable to existing models to improve the prediction of all-cause and lung cancer mortality."
Though risk prediction models such as this one are still a work in progress, the researchers emphasized that taking this variable into account would require no extra cost and only minimal effort.
"This is simply another small step in improving personal risk stratification, which will become more valuable when large numbers of scans are made to screen for lung cancer," he said.
