The estimated total cost of cancer care in the U.S. in 2020 is expected to be $158 billion, a 27% increase from 2010, according to an article published online January 12 in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.
The increase is based exclusively on the projected aging and growth of the U.S. population, but the amount could rise more rapidly if cost increases for services are also factored in, according to the article's lead author, Angela Mariotto, PhD, a mathematical statistician at the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences in Rockville, MD.
The elderly population of the U.S. is expected to increase from 40 million in 2009 to 70 million in 2030.
To estimate the national medical cost of cancer care through the year 2020 for 13 cancers in men and 16 cancers in women, the researchers analyzed data on cancer incidence and survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and Medicare expenditures associated with cancer. They combined prevalence and cancer costs by phase of care, and used census population projections to calculate cancer care costs through the year 2020.
The researchers projected prevalence by phase of care under different assumptions about future incidence and survival, and they projected costs by phase of care under different assumptions about future trends. Under a different scenario of continuing trends in cancer incidence, survival, and costs of care, the researchers estimated that cancer treatment costs could be as high as $173 billion in 2020, a 39% increase over 2010 costs.
The highest cost increases for cancer care between 2010 and 2020 are projected to occur for breast cancer (32%) and prostate cancer (42%) survivors. The highest projected cost for any individual cancer is for breast cancer, at $20.5 billion in 2020.
By Cynthia E. Keen
AuntMinnie.com staff writer
January 12, 2011
Related Reading
Cost of radiation therapy for U.S. senior citizens soars, January 10, 2011
Cancer cost world economy $895B in 2008, September 3, 2010
U.S. cancer costs double over 20 years, May 10, 2010
Medicare cancer imaging grows at twice rate of overall expenses, April 27, 2010
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