The severe imbalance between U.S. job openings and the dearth of radiologists to fill them appears to have eased somewhat in the last two years, according to a new report in the American Journal of Roentgenology. But the modest decline in help-wanted ads is little help to employers offering the least-wanted jobs.
Advertisements for positions in academia and practices in the Midwest comprised a larger proportion of the help-wanted ads in Radiology and AJR in 2002 than in 2001, according to the latest installment in a long-term trend analysis.
Certain subspecialties also stood out as facing a greater shortage of radiologists, according to researchers in the departments of diagnostic radiology and economics as well as the School of Management at Yale University in New Haven, CT; the Reston, VA-based American College of Radiology; and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York City. The ACR and the Yale University School of Medicine’s Office of Student Research funded the study.
Statistically significant increases were seen in the proportion of ads seeking radiologists for abdominal imaging, mammography, neuroradiology, pediatric radiology, chest radiology, and nuclear medicine.
Altogether, the researchers counted 5,117 ads for different radiologist positions in 2002, a 10.4% decline from the number of positions advertised in 2001. Total ad volume peaked at 599 in the journals’ December 2001 issues, although the researchers focused their analysis on a "rolling average" calculated to minimize seasonal variation in advertising. The rolling average peaked in February 2002 at 488 ads, and declined by December to 432 ads.
But no matter how you count, the recent numbers are a far cry from the low point seen in July 1995, when there were just 37 ads for radiologists. The 599 ads seen in December 2001 were also the most seen since tracking began in January 1991. The previous peak was just under 300 advertisements in December 1991, with a rolling-average peak of around 250 ads in mid-1992.
Given that historical perspective, the researchers declined to put a positive spin on their latest findings.
"Although this study indicates that the overall radiologist shortage may be easing, it does not provide a firm conclusion; and even a mild easing does not mean that the crisis has passed," the authors wrote (AJR, August 2003, Vol. 181:2, pp. 351-357).
"The academic shortage is at its most severe point ever, and the recent private-market stabilization, if real, may be temporary and derived from one-time productivity increases (as a result of PACS, teleradiology, and computer-aided diagnosis) or increased individual radiologist work-hours," they said.
The authors also cited other reasons why the apparent easing may be an illusion. In particular, the journals’ want ads may be declining because more employers are instead using Web site and e-mail ads, or headhunting services. The ACR is conducting a survey this year to quantify those phenomena.
But to the extent that the help-wanted index reflects reality, it confirms that hiring remains difficult or has even gotten harder for many academic and Midwest practices. While the number of ads for private-practice jobs decreased in 2002, the advertisements for academic positions actually increased.
"Our data suggest that the shortage of academic radiologists is indeed severe, because academic advertisements composed 42.7% of the total coded in 2002, even though only 20% of all radiologists work in academic settings," the authors noted.
Meanwhile, the number of advertisements for Midwest openings quadrupled between 1999 and 2002, and grew from 15.9% of all ads in the early 1990s to 29.7%. "As we mentioned in our previous article, it is not uncommon for many private and academic hospitals in the Midwest to be advertising to restaff almost entire departments," wrote the authors.
Overall, while the current state of affairs may be great for individual radiologists and especially for recent graduates -- who, not surprisingly, report low unemployment rates, higher pay, and high job satisfaction in other studies -- it may be quite bad for the profession as a whole.
"The current shortage of diagnostic radiologists poses a significant threat to the viability of our specialty," the study authors concluded. "Without adequate numbers of properly trained radiologists, we stand to yield turf to competing specialties, sacrifice the quality of our academic training programs, lose radiologists available to perform research, and, most important, compromise our ability to provide optimal patient care."
By Tracie L. ThompsonAuntMinnie.com contributing writer
August 19, 2003
Related Reading
Healthcare an economic boon for some cities, August 13, 2003
AMGA finds solid radiologist compensation gains, August 12, 2003
Latest ACR data shows solo radiologists, small practice groups remain viable, July 29, 2003
Hunting for recruits, pediatric radiologists take aim at "misconceptions," June 26, 2003
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